Who Is Closest to AGI?

How AGI Elo ranks nations by the world's best frontier AI models · agielo.com

What is AGI Elo?

AGI Elo is the scoring system behind The AGI Leaderboard — a composite index (0–100) measuring how close each nation's best AI models are to artificial general intelligence. Arena chat quality, coding benchmarks, and knowledge tests roll up into one citeable number designed for headlines like “🇺🇸 US is closest to AGI at 81.1”.

The formula

AGI Elo = 40% × Arena ELO (normalized) + 35% × SWE-bench Verified % + 25% × MMLU-Pro %

Arena ELO is normalized from the 1200–1600 range to 0–100 before weighting.

Virality indices

In addition to AGI Elo (capability), the map supports two adoption lenses that can diverge sharply from benchmark rankings:

Index	Source	What it measures	Updates
Usage Index	OpenRouter Datasets API	7-day token share by nation (developer inference proxy)	Daily
Open Index	Hugging Face Hub API	30-day download totals for mapped open-weight authors	Daily snapshots

Use the Capability · Usage · Open toggle on the map to compare ranks side-by-side. Rank spread (e.g. capability #1 but usage #3) is the virality story.

Data sources

Input	Source	Updates
Arena text ELO	Arena AI via api.wulong.dev	Daily
SWE-bench Verified %	SWE-bench GitHub JSON	On submission
MMLU-Pro %	Artificial Analysis (optional API key)	On release
Open-weight models	Hugging Face API	Continuous

Nation assignment

Each Arena vendor maps to a home nation. We currently track:

USA — Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, xAI, Perplexity
UK — Google DeepMind
China — Alibaba (Qwen), Z.ai (GLM), DeepSeek, MiniMax, Moonshot (Kimi), Baidu (Ernie), ByteDance, Xiaomi
France — Mistral (Arena + Hugging Face)

Most countries have no competitive model on the index. Nations with a live frontier model score show their AGI Elo number; all others (including UAE and Japan in our watchlist) are labeled accordingly.

Vendors seen on Arena but folded into existing nations: Meta and xAI → USA; MiniMax/Moonshot/Baidu → China. No separate Canada/Israel/Korea entry yet — Cohere, AI21, and Upstage are not in the Arena top tier.

Week-over-week delta

We store daily snapshots in history.json. The delta on each nation compares today’s AGI Elo to the most recent snapshot at least 7 days old (or the earliest available).

Auto-sync

The server syncs automatically every 24 hours (configurable via SYNC_INTERVAL_HOURS). Set OPENROUTER_API_KEY for live usage data.

Limitations

Nation scores reflect companies headquartered there, not all global compute.
Arena ELO is human preference, not task accuracy.
OpenRouter usage reflects router traffic, not total global inference — cheap models can dominate token share.
Hugging Face downloads skew toward open-weight models; proprietary APIs are underrepresented.
SWE-bench entries often include agent harnesses, not raw models alone.
Smaller nations may lack Arena top-20 representation; Hugging Face fills gaps where possible.

Cite us

When referencing this index: “Per AGI Elo (agielo.com), [nation] scores [X] as of [date].” Link to the live map or share card.